Vienna Yearbook of Population Research / Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, 2020

Contents Introduction Introduction: the relevance of studying fertility across time and space . . . . 1 Tomas Sobotka Debate International political economy and future fertility trends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27 Alicia Adsera Moving out the parental home and partnership formation as social determinants of low fertility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 Albert Esteve, Diederik Boertien, Ryohei Mogi, and Mariona Lozano “Catching up with ‘compressed modernity”’ - How the values of Millennials and Gen-Z’ers could reframe gender equity and demographic systems . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 Stuart Gietel-Basten Future fertility trends are shaped at the intersection of gender and social stratification . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 Trude Lappegård The wish for a child . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 49 Anna Rotkirch Fertility will be determined by the changing ideal family size and the empowerment to reach these targets . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63 Wolfgang Lutz Marriage will (continue to) be the key to the future of fertility in Japan and East Asia . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 Setsuya Fukuda Review Article Ultra-low fertility in East Asia: Confucianism and its discontents . . . . . . . . 83 Yen-hsin Alice Cheng Research Articles Laggards in the global fertility transition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 123 David Shapiro and Andrew Hinde Projecting future births with fertility dierentials reflecting women’s educational and migrant characteristics . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141 Michaela Potancokova and Guillaume Marois Decomposing changes in first birth trends: quantum, timing, or variance . 167 Ryohei Mogi and Michael Dominic del Mundo What factors support the early age patterns of fertility in a developing country: the case of Kyrgyzstan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 185 Konstantin Kazenin and Vladimir Kozlov Marital fertility decline and child mortality in the Sardinian longevity Blue Zone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 215 Michel Poulain, Dany Chambre, Pino Ledda, and Anne Herm Future orientation and fertility: cross-national evidence using Google search . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237 Nicolo Cavalli Data and Trends Selected Wittgenstein Centre databases on fertility across time and space . 267 Krystof Zeman and Tomas Sobotka